The unseen hand of AI in global finance

The narrative surrounding stablecoins and their potential to reshape global finance often focuses on human adoption-investors seeking stability, businesses seeking efficiency or individuals seeking cheaper remittances. However, a more profound and less discussed driver of this transformation is the rise of agentic artificial intelligence (AI) agents. These software entities, increasingly capable of executing complex transactions, managing portfolios and conducting business operations independently, are poised to become the primary users and arbiters of digital currency flows. The Swiss bank, Anima, defines agentic payments as: “A financial transaction initiated and completed entirely by an AI agent without real-time human approval” and, as AI systems become embedded throughout the global economy, their choice of payment currency will carry profound consequences. Moreover, AI agents will select agentic USD stablecoins because they align with the core objectives of machine decision-making: predictability, efficiency, risk reduction and, above all, the ability to execute transactions instantly. As agentic agents increasingly control trade, payments and treasury functions, they could become a powerful force accelerating global dollarisation whereby challenging the monetary sovereignty of non-US central banks and treasuries. Without doubt, an understanding this emerging AI preference is becoming essential for policymakers seeking to preserve economic competitiveness and monetary influence in the digital age.

USD v USD agentic quality and volatility analysis (1907-2031)

Source: X

The rise of agentic AI agents in commerce and finance

Agentic AI agents are sophisticated software programs designed to perform tasks or make decisions with minimal human intervention. Their capabilities range from optimising logistics and managing complex supply chains to executing high-frequency trading strategies and automating corporate treasury functions. These agents operate based on predefined algorithms, machine learning models and access to vast datasets, so enabling them to identify patterns, predict outcomes and execute actions with speed and precision far beyond human capacity. All of this can function 24/7 and create a record of each transaction plus a reason/rational as to why the transaction was executed. In the context of finance, AI agents are already transforming various sectors, including:

• algorithmic trading - AI-driven algorithms execute trades at microsecond speeds, exploiting arbitrage opportunities and managing large portfolios.
• supply chain optimisation - agents automate procurement, inventory management and payment processing across global supply networks.
• treasury management - corporations deploy AI to manage cash flows, hedge currency risks and optimise liquidity across international subsidiaries.
• decentralised finance (DeFi) - smart contracts, a form of agentic agent, govern lending protocols, liquidity pools and automated market makers on blockchain networks.

As AI technology advances, these agents will become increasingly sophisticated, capable of more complex decision-making and operating with greater autonomy. Their integration into the global economic fabric is not a distant future but a rapidly unfolding reality. Indeed, Coinbase recently reported that there have been 100 million AI-powered transactions worth over $50million in the last few months. The critical question then becomes: what currency will these powerful, agentic economic actors choose for their operations? AI agents are designed to maximise efficiency, minimise risk and operate in predictable environments; these characteristics make dollar-backed stablecoins particularly attractive because they combine the stability of the US dollar with the speed and programmability of blockchain networks. From an AI perspective, agentic USD offers three advantages:

• stability - many stablecoins are backed by short-term US Treasuries, which are widely regarded as the world’s deepest and most liquid sovereign debt market.

• efficiency - blockchain-based settlement can occur almost instantly, reducing the delays and operational friction associated with traditional banking systems.

• programmability - smart contracts enable AI agents to automate payments, collateral management and complex financial workflows without intermediaries.

As stablecoin reserves increasingly flow into US Treasuries, a growing feedback loop is emerging between digital dollars and the US financial system. Stablecoin issuers already hold hundreds of billions of dollars of Treasury securities, reinforcing demand for dollar-denominated assets and extending the global reach of the dollar into machine-to-machine commerce. For AI agents managing treasury, trading or supply-chain operations, agentic USD may simply become the most efficient, predictable and economically rational form of digital money available.

Sovereign backing and global network effects

The explicit sovereign guarantee of the US government behind agentic USD provides a layer of trust that resonates with AI’s need for verifiable and robust backing. This is further amplified by the global network effects of the US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency. AI agents operating across international borders will seek a universally accepted and liquid medium of exchange; agentic USD, as a digital extension of the dollar, fits this requirement perfectly. The widespread adoption of agentic USD by agentic AI agents will drive dollarisation through several interconnected mechanisms, accelerating the displacement of local currencies in non-US economies. The World Economic Forum believes: “Autonomy and intelligence will be key to competitiveness in supply chains, but their long-term value will derive from whether they are embedded in systems that remain inclusive, interoperable and trusted across regions.” AI agents managing supply chains, treasury functions and trading operations are likely to favour stablecoins because they can automate payments, reduce foreign exchange costs and move value across borders 24/7. Smart contracts can trigger payments automatically when goods are delivered or contractual conditions are met, reducing settlement delays and working capital requirements. Meanwhile, according to the World Economic Forum, programmable payments and tokenised assets have the potential to streamline global trade and supply chain finance.

The appeal extends beyond trade. Stablecoins can provide near-instant settlement, a single unit of account for multinational treasury operations and access to yields generated by underlying reserve assets. As a result, corporations, trading firms and digital marketplaces may increasingly use dollar-backed stablecoins for liquidity management and cross-border transactions. The IMF has previously warned that widespread adoption of foreign currency stablecoins could accelerate digital dollarisation and reduce the effectiveness of domestic monetary policy. Hence, as AI agents increasingly buy and sell data, compute power, financial services and digital assets on behalf of users, the demand for a globally accepted, programmable and instantly transferable form of money may grow. Whether this ultimately strengthens the dominance of the US dollar remains uncertain, but the foundations for a new form of machine-driven dollarisation are already emerging.

Source: London Digital Escrow

Erosion of domestic monetary control: the central banks’ dilemma

The AI-driven acceleration of dollarisation poses an existential threat to the monetary control of non-US central banks. As significant portions of economic activity migrate to agentic USD, the traditional levers of monetary policy become increasingly ineffective. The loss of monetary policy transmission is very real and will increasingly be of concern to governments and central bankers. Central banks influence the economy primarily by setting interest rates, managing liquidity and controlling the money supply. When a substantial volume of transactions and savings shifts to Agentic USD, the central bank’s ability to transmit its policy signals throughout the domestic economy is severely hampered, such as:

• interest rate ineffectiveness - changes in the central bank’s policy rate will have a diminished impact if economic agents can simply opt for agentic USD, which offers a yield tied to US Treasuries. Domestic interest rate differentials may become less relevant for investment and consumption decisions.
• liquidity management challenges - the central bank’s ability to inject or withdraw liquidity from the financial system becomes compromised when a parallel, US dollar denominated digital money supply operates outside its direct control. This can lead to unpredictable liquidity conditions and undermine financial stability.
• money supply obfuscation - the true size and composition of the money supply become harder to ascertain, complicating inflation targeting and macroeconomic forecasting. The central bank loses visibility into a significant portion of the economy’s transactional layer.

Impact on exchange rates and financial stability

Increased dollarisation, particularly when driven by AI agents optimising for risk and yield, can lead to greater volatility in the local currency’s exchange rate. As demand shifts from the local currency to agentic USD, the domestic currency may depreciate, leading to imported inflation and further eroding purchasing power. This can create a vicious cycle where economic agents further accelerate their shift to agentic USD, exacerbating the problem. Furthermore, the rapid movement of capital into agentic USD can destabilise domestic financial institutions. If a significant portion of commercial bank deposits shifts to agentic USD, banks may face liquidity shortages, increased funding costs and reduced capacity for domestic lending, potentially triggering financial crises.

Erosion of seigniorage and fiscal autonomy

Seigniorage, (the profit made by a government by issuing currency) will decline as economic activity shifts to agentic USD. This loss of revenue can impact government budgets and reduce fiscal flexibility. More broadly, the loss of monetary control translates into a significant erosion of fiscal autonomy, as the government’s ability to finance its operations and manage its debt becomes increasingly dependent on external factors and the preferences of AI agents operating in a dollarised digital sphere. We have seen the future with AIs taking control of the battlefield. Agentic USD and autonomous drone warfare are emerging as two manifestations of the same strategic shift: the use of software, artificial intelligence and networked infrastructure to project power beyond traditional military and financial boundaries. Both operate at machine speed, reduce reliance on human intervention and increasingly challenge the ability of nation states to control events within their own borders. Their evolution follows a remarkably similar trajectory. What began as human-directed systems is rapidly becoming AI-assisted and, in some cases, AI-driven decision-making. In warfare, autonomous drones can identify, track and engage targets with minimal human involvement. In finance, AI agents can discover, negotiate and execute transactions across global networks using programmable digital dollars.

For businesses, investors and financial institutions, the critical question is no longer whether AI and digital money will transform global finance, but who will capture the economic value created by that transformation. If agentic agents increasingly choose agentic USD as their preferred settlement asset, the winners may be those who own the rails, wallets, liquidity networks, data centres and compliance infrastructure that enable machine-to-machine commerce. Nations focused solely on regulating digital assets may discover that the greater opportunity lies in attracting the infrastructure that powers them. The future battle for financial leadership may not be fought between central banks and commercial banks but between jurisdictions competing to become the preferred home for AI driven capital, payments and programmable money. Those that move first could gain a disproportionate share of the next trillion dollars of financial activity, whilst those that hesitate risk watching their currencies become spectators in an economy increasingly run by machines.

In Article 4 in the series of the agentic US dollar, we examine perhaps the greatest long-term risk posed by it: that is, its potential to drain liquidity from domestic financial systems and weaken sovereign debt markets. As programmable, AI-native digital dollars backed by US Treasuries become increasingly attractive, governments may find themselves competing, not only for investment and trade but for the savings needed to finance their own economies and preserve fiscal sovereignty.

This article first appeared in Digital Bytes (30th of June, 2026), a weekly newsletter by Jonny Fry of Team Blockchain.